As figures reveal Lib Dem membership has shrunk by 20% we also learn that Cable speaks regularly with Ed Miliband

By Tim Montgomerie
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One of the more remarkable things about the Lib/Con Coalition is the absence of disunity on the central project of deficit reduction. I would also have predicted that a Lib Dem backbencher might have defected by now. Despite real tensions on the government benches it hasn't happened. What is happening, however, is a big fall in Lib Dem membership as party activists give up on Nick Clegg and his cohabitation with the Conservatives.

One big sign came before the recent local elections when the Lib Dems struggled to field candidates in crucial wards. Now the Independent on Sunday is reporting that party membership has fallen by 20% since the formation of the Coalition:

• Membership is falling fastest in seats held by Government ministers - offering an interesting counterpoint to the general view that the Lib Dem vote is holding up better in seats that they currently hold.
• The minister who lost most members was Sarah Teather in Brent. 42% of her members fell away.
• Membership is also down particularly sharply in Scotland where the drop equals 26%.
• The Lib Dem student movement is half the size it was before Nick Clegg's spectacular U-turn on tuition fees.

The Left of the Liberal Democrats may be looking for an escape route via Labour. The Sunday Telegraph reports that a variety of Nick Clegg's colleagues are in regular contact with aides to Ed Miliband and the Labour leader himself. "One Labour source revealed Mr Cable and Mr Miliband spoke regularly by telephone". Other communicants include Ming Campbell, Tim Farron, Simon Hughes and serial trouble-maker Lord (Matthew) Oakeshott.

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As Tory MPs move apart for the '22 elections, Labour's leaders draw closer over an EU referendum

By Paul Goodman
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Five straws in the wind:

• Ed Balls's joint Guardian article on Sunday with Peter Mandelson about Europe policy, stressing an active European Central Bank, banking recapitalisation, more infrastucture spending and greater fiscal union.  That these one-time old enemies teamed up in this way is significant.

• Lord Mandelson's earlier though recent support in principle for an EU-related referendum.

• Balls's own support this week for such a referendum, expressed in almost identical terms.

• Tony Blair's wish to re-engage with British politics.

• The opportunities that the forthcoming Shadow Cabinet reshuffle presents to heal relations between Labour's differents wings (if Ed Miliband doesn't mess it up).

For all the divisions of the Blair/Brown years and the Miliband/Miliband leadership election, Labour is the natural party of the British establishment: that's to say, of the public sector elites - the Universities, the arts, the top layer of the legal profession (or at least of its human rights wing) - and the state broadcaster, plus the bigger churches (or much of their leadership).

No wonder it is showing signs of a very establishment instinct for unity.  The paralysing effect of that leadership election - in which Labour members and MPs voted for the other Miliband - are beginning to fade.  As I pointed out recently, Mr Miliband has clearly clocked that David Cameron is badly exposed on Europe, and is being pushed hard to exploit this weakness.

While UKIP eats into the Tory vote, the Greens further divide the Left

By Tim Montgomerie
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There's been a lot of focus on the impact that UKIP could have on the Tory vote at the next election but it's not only David Cameron who needs to worry about his core supporters defecting. In the London Mayoral elections the Lib Dem Brian Paddick came fourth - one spot behind the Green Party's Jenny Jones. The Greens see the next election as a big opportunity to build on the breakthrough that Caroline Lucas made in 2010 when she became her party's first MP.

Last night Ms Lucas announced that she would be stepping down as Green leader (they never used to have one top public spokesperson but a shared, rotating leadership group) in order for a successor to be able to focus on ousting Lib Dems at the next election.

The Independent quotes her at length, explaining her decision:

"People who voted Lib Dem in the past feel betrayed... A lot of them are looking for a new home and we want to be able to welcome them... I want to ensure that we use the leadership of the Green Party in a strategic way, to help us build momentum and build up our electoral presence... We don't want to be complacent about it, to assume we have any right to that (Lib Dem) vote but we do want to be able to take our message to Lib Dem areas in particular, to make the case that so many of these issues which we know they care about, the kind of manifesto that they thought they were voting for, are key principles of the Green Party."

The rising profile of the Greens should also worry Ed Miliband. Ms Lucas' party is more red than green - supporting a large state, high taxes on business, a big expansion of regulation and opposition to strong defence. If they start to enjoy a higher profile the Greens could eat into Labour's vote as well as that of the Liberal Democrats.

Ed Miliband can't even win in Labour's old heartlands

By Tim Montgomerie
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Click on image to enlarge.

Last year he lost in Scotland.

Last month he lost Bradford West.

Today he's almost certainly lost London.

If Ed Miliband can't even win in his traditional heartlands there must be huge question marks over his ability to win the next election.

Ed Miliband wants Labour to become an energy supplier. Would you trust them to handle your electricity?

By Matthew Barrett
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Ed Miliband, in his interview with the Guardian this morning, came out with a rather bizarre proposal. He said that Labour is considering "organising the bulk purchase of cheap electricity to sell at a discount" to ordinary households, to be distributed through Labour's grassroots:

"Miliband said: "It is an outstanding idea. It might involve working with, or emulating what [the activist organisation] 38 degrees and Which? magazine are trying to do, which is to sign up people to bulk buy energy from the energy companies.

"We are thinking of going to the energy companies as the Labour party so that 'responsible capitalism' is not just an idea, but something practical. We think we may be able to deliver it through our grassroots network.""

Given that Labour have hardly done an inspirational job as a political party, attempting to juggle Westminster politics with something as complex as being an energy supplier would not seem to be a logical next step, and it's doubtful consumers would take Miliband's proposal seriously. 

Charles Hendry, the Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change, has issued the following statement, pushing back against Miliband's new idea:

"Labour seem to under the delusion that they are a trusted brand like Which?, but why would anyone buy their electricity from the people who bankrupted the economy? Labour had 13 years to deal with the energy market, but on their watch energy prices skyrocketed. It's all very well for Ed Miliband to talk about cutting bills, two years ago he was in the Cabinet, as Energy Secretary, and yet he did nothing to help families with their bills."

While Miliband is focused on energy bills, it might be worth someone pointing out to him that by not adopting the Government's Feed-in Tariff reductions for small and larger-scale solar panels, Labour's plans would mean an extra £90 a year for the average household's electricity bill.

Good to see you, George. Same time next year?

By Paul Goodman
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George Galloway will be sworn in as an MP at about 3.30 this afternoon.  He will have worked hard to win the endorsement of the voters of Bradford West.  Harder than he did for the voters of Bethnal Green and Bow, if Commons attendance is the measure at stake.

The conventional wisdom is that Galloway will take the same relaxed view of his voting and speaking duties in his new seat as he did in his old one.  I wonder.  The scale of his win will have raised local expectations, and spurred Labour to shake up its operation.

His new constituents may not approve if the march of the Bradford Spring ends up back at the Big Brother studio.

Ed Miliband's £5,000 party funding cap appears radical - but could the unions bypass it?

By Matthew Barrett
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Ed Miliband appeared on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. The big news to come from the Labour leader's interview was that he appears to want to take the lead on party funding. At first glance, his comments seem to present a fairly radical approach to party funding:

"I’m determined to move on this and it’s going to be uncomfortable. All political leaders will have to make decisions that are uncomfortable for them and here are my proposals. First of all, we’ve got to have a low cap on donations. Not the £50,000 that the Prime minister talks about, £50,000 is double the average wage. I say a £5,000 donation cap, a proper low donation cap. Secondly we’ve got to have much tougher limits on spending, more comprehensive limits on spending and lower limits on spending and, thirdly, parties are going to have to diversify where they get their income from, much more small donations. ... When I talk about a £5,000 donation cap, it’s got to apply to donations from the trade unions. What I say is this; the large donations from the trade unions would no longer happen under this system."

Miliband knows a £5,000 cap would cripple both parties. The Conservatives are too reliant on a relatively small pool of large donors, and Labour are too reliant on big union donations. But Miliband also knows Labour would be able to get past the £5,000 cap. Miliband refused to answer a question about whether the £3 political levy every union member pays should be opt-in, rather than opt-out. Miliband said several times that transparency in Labour spending is more important than whether the levy stays opt-out. We must be suspicious, therefore, of the possibility that the unions would manipulate the individual levy in order to spread the burden of donations. The levy could be raised, even if gradually, to give more funds to Labour, while staying well under the £5,000 cap.

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Livingstone wasn't moved to tears by real Londoners supporting his candidacy. They were actors.

By Paul Goodman
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The headline above tells the story.

Labour Uncut's Atu Hatwal has highlighted it today.  It was in yesterday's Guardian diary but seems to have got little traction.

As Hatwal writes:

"At the time the explanation given to reporters was that Ken was moved by the genuine words of Londoners and the responsibility he felt to win the election for them.

Stirring stuff. Shame it was rubbish."

5.30pm update: The Evening Standard is reporting the Livingstone campaign's insistence that the Guardian was mistaken and that none of the people expressing support for the Labour candidate in his campaign film were actors.  However, the campaign isn't denying that they delivered their lines from a script and were paid expenses - and that in some cases, they were paid "a small amount for their time".

Ken Livingstone's spending plans would cost every London council tax payer £348

By Matthew Barrett
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A new report released today by the Back Boris campaign reveals the impact every family in London will face if Ken Livingstone was to win this May's mayoral election - £348 in council tax increases, and an increase in the Congestion Charge.

The report, entitled "Can't Afford Ken", notes that Livingstone has made 24 spending promises that cost more money than is in the budget. These spending commitments have been made either in public speeches or in documents after he was selected as Labour’s candidate. They include a transport fare cut, a pledge to replace the withdrawn EMA scheme, a London-wide lettings agency, an "Air Quality Improvement Fund", a "Cinema Discount Card" for young people, and, bizarrely, a party in Trafalgar Square just for the Portuguese-speaking diaspora.

The report projects the total cost of the 24 pledges over four years to be £2.7bn, with the cost estimates based on public sources, Labour's own estimates, or independent estimates. To raise this amount of money, Livingstone would need to find more funds from the council tax precept, and more revenue from TfL.

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Teacher: Britain is Egypt! Cameron is Mubarak! Mass resistance now!

By Paul Goodman
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"Tony Dowling, a former member of the Socialist Workers Party, was applauded after he said: 'We cannot wait until 2015 to get rid of this Government. The Egyptian revolution was driven by mass resistance on the streets as well as trade union organisation.'

"A primary school head was greeted by laughter when she said that she had been a Trotskyite. Rachael Thomas from Bristol, said: 'Not every parent, teacher or governor who opposes academies is a Trot, but I am.' "

Details from the N.U.T conference in The Times (£).